This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in Web of Science Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Web of Science (1) Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Francis, B. Articles by Piquero, A. R. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Estimation Issues and Generational Changes in Modeling Criminal Career Length

Lancaster University, UK

Keith Soothill

Lancaster University, UK

Alex R. Piquero

University of Florida, Gainesville

This article seeks to model criminal career length using data from six different birth cohorts born between 1953 and 1978, totaling more than 58,000 males and females from England and Wales. A secondary aim of this article is to consider whether information available at the first court appearance leading to a conviction is associated with the length of a criminal career. Four key findings emerged. First, one can estimate career length from variables available at the first court conviction. Second, the risk of desistance remains constant during a period of 20 to 25 years if the offender does not immediately stop after the first conviction. Third, the most significant variable is age at first conviction. Finally, gender differences and birth cohorts are also important.

Key Words: career length • criminal careers • cohort effects • Cox model • survival analysis

Crime & Delinquency, Vol. 53, No. 1, 84-105 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0011128706294441


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?