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Deadly Demographics: Population Characteristics and Forecasting Homicide Trends

College of Criminal Justice, Northeastern University

Alex R. Piquero

Center for Studies in Criminology & Law, University of Florida

Violence research has identified demographic subgroups—distinguished by age, race and gender—having widely varying rates of offending. According to the demographic hypothesis used in criminology, as these segments grow or contract in proportionate size, the aggregate offending rate tends to rise or fall as a result. In this article, we use data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports from 1976 through 1999 to assess the extent to which demographic change can account for the massive drop in homicide rates that occurred during the 1990s, and then attempt to develop a demographically based forecast of future trends in murder.

Key Words: homicide • forecasting • demographics • population characteristics

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