This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Zimring, F. E. Articles by Fagan, J. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

The Search for Causes in an Era of Crime Declines: Some Lessons from the Study of New York City Homicide

Jefferey Fagan

This article addresses the problem of testing the effects of particular policies on crime rates in an era of general down trends. One illustration of that problem is our recent finding that rates of non-gun homicide had been declining substantially in New York City for 8 years prior to any significant change in policing and could not plausibly be caused by these later events. The article contrasts three different "controls" for time trend effects, naive cross-sectional controls, detailed models of crime causation, and qualitative checks that examine whether the details of crime patterns are changing in ways consistent with theories of policy events as change agents. The qualitative approach is embraced as a necessity. A final section questions whether criminal justice policies should be assumed to affect general crime rates in broad and undifferentiated ways.

Crime & Delinquency, Vol. 46, No. 4, 446-456 (2000)
DOI: 10.1177/0011128700046004002


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?